Kentucky Derby Pace

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set to be one of the fastest ever. History shows it’s almost certain.

I’ve studied the running styles of every horse in every Kentucky Derby since 1980—45 years of data. Each horse was graded from A to F: “A” for speedsters who need the lead, “F” for deep closers trailing far behind. A’s and B’s fight for the front; E’s and F’s lag way back.

The most “A’s” in any Derby since 1980 was four, occurring in 1981, 2005, and 2022. The 2025 Derby will be the fourth.

In 1981, four “A’s” pushed a blazing :45.1 half-mile, then faded. Pleasant Colony, 17th early, surged to win, with the top nine finishers all coming from 10th or worse. In 2005, another :45.1 half saw Giacomo, 18th early, storm to a 50-1 upset, with only Bellamy Road (7th) surviving the pace. In 2022, four “A’s” again set a :45.1 half, and Rich Strike, 18th early, shocked at 80-1.

With 150,000 fans roaring and a chaotic 20-horse field, speed horses rarely relax once they surge early. When they go, they keep going, setting up a collapse for closers to exploit.

Bob Baffert is the X-factor in this analysis. Over the past 30 years, only four horses won the Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire, and Baffert trained three: War Emblem, Authentic, and Medina Spirit. Four others won pressing the pace, with Baffert training two: American Pharoah and Justify. Of the eight speed horses to win since 1995, Baffert trained five. This year, he has two top speed horses, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, in the mix.

There are several deep closers in this Kentucky Derby, and none can be completely ruled out given how the race is expected to unfold initially. Notably, Publisher, trained by Steve Asmussen and listed at 30-1 in the morning line, bears a striking similarity to Lookin' at Lee, who finished second at 33-1 in the 2017 Kentucky Derby for Asmussen.

Publisher, ridden by the renowned jockey Irad Ortiz, remains without a win but is a strong contender at high odds. He is a prime candidate to make a surprising impact in the exotic bets, at the very least.